Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 4.082764 4.803760 5.602312 6.550583 7.644096 8.863639 10.324854
2025-08-17 2.751451 3.651012 4.758589 6.214653 8.069616 10.344085 13.333391
2025-08-24 2.033655 2.989527 4.276239 6.116681 8.659702 12.024230 16.781833
2025-08-31 1.574322 2.530504 3.920766 6.057567 9.218674 13.673283 20.361763
2025-09-07 1.327006 2.304918 3.824313 6.306930 10.196605 15.973130 25.085817
2025-09-14 1.098289 2.050226 3.622634 6.339518 10.822898 17.801286 29.303826
2025-09-21 0.920603 1.837869 3.441257 6.357180 11.400981 19.590524 33.629107
2025-09-28 0.779604 1.658162 3.277560 6.366035 11.945059 21.360288 38.084724
2025-10-05 0.738549 1.657371 3.428284 6.942505 13.522795 24.986320 45.950896
2025-10-12 0.661362 1.567571 3.395014 7.169283 14.494955 27.666413 52.458071
2025-10-19 0.595374 1.487098 3.364562 7.391618 15.476367 30.447975 59.392661
2025-10-26 0.519777 1.369195 3.237096 7.398429 16.038393 32.512482 65.213454
2025-11-02 0.432254 1.207126 2.993946 7.141586 16.070483 33.636179 69.497734
2025-11-09 0.352660 1.046033 2.724655 6.787491 15.859592 34.276312 72.946201
2025-11-16 0.301738 0.946493 2.579061 6.684613 16.162118 35.955897 78.581040
2025-11-23 0.260892 0.864171 2.459487 6.621658 16.539861 37.820127 84.754706
2025-11-30 0.241549 0.838774 2.478279 6.892639 17.700161 41.424526 94.816118
2025-12-07 0.214394 0.782984 2.407149 6.928146 18.315677 43.917745 102.759023
2025-12-14 0.190201 0.730216 2.334324 6.947361 18.892677 46.378146 110.843728
2025-12-21 0.168826 0.681028 2.262290 6.956987 19.445697 48.834029 119.127849
2025-12-28 0.168666 0.705236 2.408416 7.582189 21.612854 55.161793 136.532343
2026-01-04 0.156983 0.685196 2.418323 7.828041 22.836123 59.404201 149.559614
2026-01-11 0.146158 0.665557 2.426076 8.069024 24.074291 63.789901 163.264230